Shōkunin Capital & Strategy Weekly — [July 13, 2026]

The Fed has held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent through four consecutive meetings, most recently on a unanimous vote in June. The projections released alongside that meeting pencil in no cuts for the rest of the year, and the minutes published on July 8 dropped the language that had signaled an easing bias, with a few participants making a case for raising rates. Futures now put the odds of a September increase near two thirds. For anyone underwriting a purchase or a refinance on the assumption of cheaper money later this year, that assumption carries more risk than it did a month ago.

Oil is the reason. Crude settled Friday at $71.41 and jumped about four percent Monday, back above $74, after a fourth round of United States strikes on Iran. Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice, a claim United States Central Command rejected, and tanker traffic through the strait has thinned. Energy prices feed inflation, and inflation is what keeps the Fed still. Two events this week will test it: June CPI lands Tuesday morning, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh makes his first appearance before Congress Tuesday and Wednesday.

The stress in commercial real estate credit has not gone away. The headline CMBS delinquency rate eased in June to 7.35 percent, helped by a recovery in hotel loans. Counting loans that have passed their maturity date but are still paying interest, the figure reaches 9.53 percent, the highest in years. Loans in special servicing now sit at 10.57 percent, a level last seen in 2013. Office remains the weakest point. About 17 percent of commercial and multifamily loan balances come due this year, which is why refinancing and restructuring conversations are filling the calendar.

Los Angeles multifamily has stayed tight, with vacancy near 4.2 percent and rents up around 3.8 percent, though the Measure ULA transfer tax and rent regulation continue to weigh on what a deal can bear. Industrial tells a more complicated story. Vacancy has climbed to roughly 4.9 percent, a ten-year high, as tariffs slowed the flow of goods, and the space holding its value best is infill and last-mile close to population and ports. Downtown office values have fallen far enough that buyers are returning, this time for conversion and repositioning rather than for the office use itself. The 2028 Olympics is already pulling leasing forward.

Hotels are having a better year than most expected. CoStar raised its 2026 forecast for revenue per available room to 2.8 percent, up from 0.6 at the start of the year. What stands out is the breadth. For the first time in this cycle the gains reach every tier, including the economy and midscale segments that spent 2025 under real pressure. New supply is scarce, with only 19 percent of the construction pipeline actually underway, the lowest share in twelve years, which favors owners of existing hotels. The value traveler is the one to watch if fuel costs keep climbing.

Prime is holding at 6.75 percent, so variable SBA pricing is steady for now. One rule change is worth knowing about. A merchant cash advance balance can no longer be refinanced with an SBA loan, which changes how an owner carrying that kind of debt should sequence a cleanup before applying. Manufacturers, separately, now qualify for waived SBA fees on many loans, which can move the math on an acquisition or an equipment purchase.

Levels reflect the July 10, 2026 close and move throughout the trading day. This note is provided for general information and is not investment, legal, or tax advice.