When the Macro Gets Personal

What Dalio, Ackman, and Business Owners Are All Saying—Without Saying It

This weekend, two titans of finance—Bill Ackman and Ray Dalio—sounded off on the state of the economy.

Ackman rang the alarm:

“We are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter.”

Dalio zoomed out:

“Don’t make the mistake of thinking this is mostly about tariffs… this is about the breakdown of the global monetary, political, and geopolitical orders.”

They’re both right. And if you’re a business owner or commercial real estate investor, these aren’t just macro theories—they’re stress points you’re already feeling:

Delayed payments and receivables
Higher construction and labor costs
Uncertainty around rates and tenant strength
Tighter capital markets and predatory lending

Business is a Confidence Game—and Confidence is Shaking

Ackman reminds us that business depends on confidence—in leadership, markets, and policy stability. While he supports reforming global trade policy, he warns against an all-out tariff war that alienates allies and rattles investment decisions.

“What CEO or board will greenlight long-term investments in the middle of an economic war?”

Dalio, on the other hand, reminds us we’re living through a natural but painful cycle—one marked by debt overload, declining trust in institutions, and systemic reordering. The takeaway? This isn’t temporary. It’s a transition phase.

This isn’t restoration. This is repositioning.

Where Macro Stress Hits the Ground

If you’re building something—scaling a business, repositioning a property, managing a cash-flowing asset—you’ve already seen it:

Bank lending tightening without warning
Deal timelines slipping as capital sources get nervous
Contractors asking for advances due to rising material prices
Tenants or buyers pausing due to macro uncertainty

And some are plugging the gaps with high-interest credit cards or merchant cash advances just to keep deals moving or payroll covered.

What Can You Do Right Now?

If Ackman says we’re mid-storm, and Dalio says the climate is changing, then your job isn’t to panic—it’s to reposition smartly.

1. Secure Flexible, Long-Term Capital While It’s Still Available

Before credit gets even tighter, explore:

SBA CAPLines or 7a loans for working capital, business expansion, or refinancing high-cost debt
“Perm loans with a story” for stabilized but unconventional CRE deals
Bridge-to-agency or structured private debt for transitional assets

This isn’t about shopping for the lowest rate. It’s about accessing capital that matches the rhythm of your cash flow and the true story of your asset or business.

2. Optimize Cash Flow with Strategic Structuring

Short-term fixes (MCAs, refi stacking, aggressive bridge debt) can kill margin and optionality. Better alternatives include:

Revolving credit lines matched to receivables or rent rolls
Equity partnerships or preferred equity instead of more debt
Structured finance that gives breathing room while repositioning or scaling

3. See the Cycle for What It Is—And Play Offense

Dalio’s message is sobering—but useful: this has happened before. And every cycle creates winners—those who:

Get clear about their position
Make smart capital moves
Focus on execution while others freeze

In other words: not the loudest, the readiest.

4. Position for Opportunity While Others Retreat

Volatility creates friction—but also real opportunity for those prepared to move.

Business owners who can access capital when others can’t, will:

Negotiate better terms with vendors or suppliers
Acquire distressed competitors or roll up strategic assets
Build brand equity by being visible, consistent, and reliable

Real estate investors with dry powder or strong lender relationships can:

Scoop up mismanaged or overleveraged assets
Win on value-add deals that require creative structuring
Step in where institutional capital is pulling back

Crisis often clears the field. When others are paralyzed, momentum itself becomes a differentiator. If you’ve been building discipline during the good years, now is the time to deploy it strategically.

How We Can Help

I work with business owners and real estate investors who are building through uncertainty—not retreating from it.

If the macro noise is keeping you stuck, you’re not alone.

But there are ways forward—with the right capital, structure, and strategy.

Let’s talk.

Marcelo Bermudez, CEPA

Chief Executive Officer

Shōkunin, Inc.

Capital and Strategy for Commercial Real Estate and Business

C – 213.453.9418

https://www.marcelobermudezinc.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/marcelobermudez/

Marcelo Bermudez is the CEO of Shōkunin, a commercial real estate and business capital and strategy advisory firm.

As a strategist, keynote speaker, and mediator, he helps owners and investors unlock value and achieve their business and financial goals.

With hands-on experience managing businesses and navigating complex commercial real estate transactions, Marcelo understands the challenges of growth, restructuring, and successful exits.

He works closely with his clients to deliver practical solutions and drive results.

When the Macro Gets Personal

What Dalio, Ackman, and Business Owners Are All Saying—Without Saying It

This weekend, two titans of finance—Bill Ackman and Ray Dalio—sounded off on the state of the economy.

Ackman rang the alarm:

“We are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter.”

Dalio zoomed out:

“Don’t make the mistake of thinking this is mostly about tariffs… this is about the breakdown of the global monetary, political, and geopolitical orders.”

They’re both right. And if you’re a business owner or commercial real estate investor, these aren’t just macro theories—they’re stress points you’re already feeling:

Delayed payments and receivables

Higher construction and labor costs

Uncertainty around rates and tenant strength

Tighter capital markets and predatory lending

Business is a Confidence Game—and Confidence is Shaking

Ackman reminds us that business depends on confidence—in leadership, markets, and policy stability. While he supports reforming global trade policy, he warns against an all-out tariff war that alienates allies and rattles investment decisions.

“What CEO or board will greenlight long-term investments in the middle of an economic war?”

Dalio, on the other hand, reminds us we’re living through a natural but painful cycle—one marked by debt overload, declining trust in institutions, and systemic reordering. The takeaway? This isn’t temporary. It’s a transition phase.

This isn’t restoration. This is repositioning.

Where Macro Stress Hits the Ground

If you’re building something—scaling a business, repositioning a property, managing a cash-flowing asset—you’ve already seen it:

Bank lending tightening without warning

Deal timelines slipping as capital sources get nervous

Contractors asking for advances due to rising material prices

Tenants or buyers pausing due to macro uncertainty

And some are plugging the gaps with high-interest credit cards or merchant cash advances just to keep deals moving or payroll covered.

What Can You Do Right Now?

If Ackman says we’re mid-storm, and Dalio says the climate is changing, then your job isn’t to panic—it’s to reposition smartly.

1. Secure Flexible, Long-Term Capital While It’s Still Available

Before credit gets even tighter, explore:

SBA CAPLines or 7a loans for working capital, business expansion, or refinancing high-cost debt

“Perm loans with a story” for stabilized but unconventional CRE deals

Bridge-to-agency or structured private debt for transitional assets

This isn’t about shopping for the lowest rate. It’s about accessing capital that matches the rhythm of your cash flow and the true story of your asset or business.

2. Optimize Cash Flow with Strategic Structuring

Short-term fixes (MCAs, refi stacking, aggressive bridge debt) can kill margin and optionality. Better alternatives include:

Revolving credit lines matched to receivables or rent rolls

Equity partnerships or preferred equity instead of more debt

Structured finance that gives breathing room while repositioning or scaling

3. See the Cycle for What It Is—And Play Offense

Dalio’s message is sobering—but useful: this has happened before. And every cycle creates winners—those who:

Get clear about their position

Make smart capital moves

Focus on execution while others freeze

In other words: not the loudest, the readiest.

4. Position for Opportunity While Others Retreat

Volatility creates friction—but also real opportunity for those prepared to move.

Business owners who can access capital when others can’t, will:

Negotiate better terms with vendors or suppliers

Acquire distressed competitors or roll up strategic assets

Build brand equity by being visible, consistent, and reliable

Real estate investors with dry powder or strong lender relationships can:

Scoop up mismanaged or overleveraged assets

Win on value-add deals that require creative structuring

Step in where institutional capital is pulling back